Everything You Need To Know About Market EV tool

The Betsniper Market EV tool is a part of the EV tools offered by Betsniper. This tool is purely an informational tool and not recommendations to bet. The market EV tool looks at one-sided markets and compares the prices to the average price of the market.

In this article we will go over why comparing one-sided prices can be useful, when it is not useful and how you can use this information to find profitable betting opportunities.

How do I use the Market EV tool?

By default, the Market EV tool is organised by opportunities where there is the largest discrepancy between the bookmaker odd and the average odd for that market.

At any given time there could be thousands of bets shown on this screen. We have many different filters you can use on the page to reduce the number of opportunities being shown such as:

• Bookmakers: go bookmakers by bookmaker or only select the bookmakers you have access to or bookmakers you want to analyse

• Sport/League: filter the leagues for the sports you are familiar with 

• Matches: filter by matches you are looking to target

• Markets: filter by markets you are looking to target

The markets filter will only appear when you have selected only 1 league/sport from the sports filter

• Odds size: filter by odds to find bets within your range 

• When the match is starting: filter by matches starting soon

The market EV tool is NOT a recommendation to bet. Rather it is an informational tool. It is quickly analysing 100,000+ markets and showing you where a given bookmaker price is significantly different from the average price. 

The EV % displayed is not a true expected value number. It is the difference between the market average and the bookmaker price displayed.

This may represent a good betting opportunity but would require further research.

Limitations of betting with one-sided markets

The reason that we can’t just say that these are good betting opportunities is that bookmakers are able to price up one-sided markets with so much juice that it is impossible to know.

For instance, look at this bet Kristjan Asllani to get 1+ fouls. For the same bet, we have one bookmaker priced at 1.17 i.e. which implies a 85% chance of happening and another priced at 2.05 i.e. 49% chance of happening.

They are pricing the exact same thing but have this insane difference. You may think that means the top price is value, but this is not necessarily true. What is most likely true is that all the prices are terrible and are well below value.

When we then include these bad prices in our average calculation, it can skew the average very far down.

When bookmakers do not provide an under price, they can put way more margin on these markets. It is impossible to know what margin they are using but it is expected to upwards of 20%. This varies greatly between bookies and for different markets.

To better understand bookie margins and how they make money, please check out this article we have written

With even just a bit of research and comparing prices, you can see how juiced these one-sided markets can be.

Because we are using the market average, this number does not necessarily help us determine the true price of the market. Because the other over-only odds are filled with juice, then we can assume the market average price is filled with juice. The market EV tool is just showing where the best price is significantly greater than the average price.

Nonetheless, this can still be useful information if you know what you are looking for.

How do people use the Market EV tool to make money?

Even though there are limitations using over-only odds, it does not mean you this information is useless. The market EV is a really quick way to identify odds that are significantly bigger than the rest of the market. Often these can be value betting opportunities.

Top down betting analysis for markets without under prices

The Market EV tool is really helpful for spotting good prices for markets where there are no under prices. This is very commonly used for goals in AFL or goals in soccer.

For example, look at this Mo Salah bet. We have 14 bookmaker prices with prices ranging from 1.96 to 2.2. And then Ladbrokes are at 2.5 (30 cents higher than the rest of the market). This does not mean it is a guaranteed a good bet, we would want to do some further research to qualify this bet.

This particularly looks like a good bet, because we have lots of references and there is not much variation amongst the references. They all fluctuate between 1.96 and 2.2. We do not have any bookmaker offering a much lower price that is skewing the average.

When we get a convergence from majority of bookmakers and one bookmaker being the outlier these tend to be good positive EV betting opportunities.

PSA: When there are some really bad prices included, it can conflate the edge, so if you are going to do a top-down approach, make sure to look at the references prices first.

Using the Betsniper prop tools to research picks

One of the most popular way, people successfully use the market EV tool is it as a starting point for research. What the Market EV tool does really well is identify some lines that might be mispriced. Because there is no under price, we need to validate that the underlying reference prices are not just garbage. We can use the prop tools to do this quickly.

This requires a bit of expertise in understanding odds, the sport and the players in the match.

Here is a good example of a bet I found with the Market EV tool and then validated with the prop tool. Jokic to get 14+ rebounds was at 3.70 on Pointsbet.

When I check the game log data, in his last 93 games, he has hit 14+ rebounds 43 times. That results in implied odds of 2.16.

The best time to look for these bets can be early in the week. Often the books that come out with prices first will release their over-only markets first. If you know what you are looking for, it can be quite easy to find value in these early lines.

PSA betting early lines, especially player props, can be quite risky for your account longevity as it's very easy for a bookmaker to review your bet as most "normal" punters are not looking at odds the day before

Combining market EV tool with promotions

The Market EV can also be a great tool to use with promotions. For instance, TAB has been running miss disposal by 1+ or rushing/receiving yards by 5+ and still get paid out. By offering this promotion, we can get some value with TAB. This is particularly true if TAB is leading the market for a given prop. This may present a value betting opportunity.

Check out this quick video that shows you exactly how to filter the Market EV tool to see these opportunities for the NBA.

Finding good opportunities for right-tailed outcomes

When bookmakers build their numbers, they usually start by trying to nail the median outcome – the point where the player is just as likely to go over as under. That’s what sets the “main” line (e.g. 6.5 rebounds). From there, they generate all the alternate lines by assuming a particular shape for the distribution of outcomes around that median, often something close to a smooth, symmetric bell curve.

The problem is that real-world player stats often don’t follow a neat, skinny bell curve. In a sport like NBA, there are things like minutes volatility, role changes, foul trouble, garbage time, and “ceiling” games can all make the distribution skewed with a fatter right tail. Certain players can be a bit feast or famine, depending on form or match-up. Often the bookmakers do not do a good job of accounting for these scenarios.

By right-tailed outcomes, I mean those big, high-end results on the far right side of the distribution – the 10, 12, 14 rebound games when the median is around 6. They don’t happen often, but they happen more frequently than a simple, symmetric model would predict. When a bookmaker’s model underestimates how thick that right tail really is, the main line might be roughly correct, but the high alternate overs can be mispriced – and that’s where value can creep in.

Check out this right-tailed outcome bet I found on the market EV page.

Targeting markets that do not have under prices

There are some markets that do not offer an under price. Often the prices bookmakers offer for these markets are junk. It is usually hard to find value as you need to sift through so many bets to find the one good one out of hundreds of bad ones.

The Market EV tool can quickly identify when one bookmaker may be completely out from the market. Below are some common markets where this can happen:

• To score a goal in soccer

• To kick a goal in AFL

• Marks/Tackles in AFL

• To score a try in NRL

• To score a home run in MLB (and many other market for baseball)

Lots of Betsniper users have had lots of success betting on these markets using the Market EV tool. However, the Market EV is just a starting point and it still requires a lot of knowledge and research to validate what are good vs bad bets.

When and who should use the Market EV tool?

The Market EV tool is best suited to bettors who already have a solid understanding of odds, variance and the sports they’re betting on. On its own, the tool is purely informational – it shows you where a bookmaker is way out of line with the market average, but it does not tell you which bets to place. To turn those discrepancies into real edges, you either need deep expertise in the sport and its players or you need to combine Market EV with other tools (like the Betsniper prop tools and game logs) to validate the prices.

If you’re looking for “bet tips”, this isn’t the right tool. You should check out our Positive EV tool. But if you’re comfortable doing your own research, comparing lines, thinking about distributions (especially right-tailed outcomes) and stress-testing prices across the market, the Market EV tool can be a powerful way to surface mispriced odds and build your own positive EV strategies.