5 Ways To Turnover Money In Your Betting Accounts

As a winning punter, your account is always at risk of being limited. If your account is constantly picking off bad prices and your overall account balance is growing, you need to mix in some other betting activity. In this article we will cover five unique strategies where you can increase your turnover in your account while minimising your losses.

What does being limited mean?

When bookmakers identify that you are winning, they can limit how much you can bet. Limits might be applied to specific sports, specific markets or just across your account as a whole. Often the limits are quite punitive which can make betting not worth it anymore. But this varies between situation to situation.

Anyone who is a successful punter will know about limiting, it's just a part of making money when betting. Our objective should be to make as much money as possible while betting as possible.

To find out more about betting limits, check out this article where we cover everything you need to know

To avoid your account beng limited, we want to make account seem like a normal punter. All accounts get labeled and monitored by bookmakers. Bookmakers have dedicated teams and systems built for labelling your account and bets. Sometimes people will even review your bet. We need to put “regular” betting activity through your betting account. 

One thing you have to accept is taking some small losses in the short-run will actually make you more money in the long run. Ideally we want to minimise these loses, but they are not always bad. Think of it as a tax for being a successful punter.

Below we will go over 5 strategies that will help you turnover money in your account while minimising your losses. For each strategy we have defined a criteria to help you better understands the risks and the outcomes.

Defining our criteria for evaluating turnover opportunities

When we are evaluating turnover opportunities we will consider them on three factors:

• Expected loss = how much money you will expect to lose from playing these opportunities

• Frequency to bet = how often this opportunities present themselves

  • High = anytime you logon to Betsniper there will be multiple opportunities to bet covering different sports and bookmakers

  • Medium = when you logon to Betsniper there will be some opportunities to bet but you may have to search

  • Low = you need to be logging on to Betsniper at the right times and there won’t always be the perfect opportunity to bet

• Variance of outcome = how variant is the outcome from this strategy

  • High = implementing this strategy has a high variance as we require volume and variance for the strategy to work

  • Medium = implementing this strategy does not have many varied outcomes or the outcomes do not have a large range

  • Low = the results from this strategy are fixed no matter on the outcome

1. Low Holds

Betsniper subscription required = Pro
Expected loss = 0% to -3%
Frequency to bet = High
Variance of outcome = Low

Low holds shows you opportunities where you can bet on both sides of a market and lock in a very small loss.

Our suggested recommendation for the filters would be: 

• 12 hours till match starts

• Moneyline and total points

Moneyline and total points have high liquidity and are the most “retail” betting markets. When betting these bets, you are able to scale up your stakes because bookmakers are insensitive to big bets on match markets. It is a great chance to get some non-positive EV bets through your account. Additionally, you are also turning over funds at two bookmakers at once. 

Check out our article about betting limits to better understand how much you can bet

There is also an option to filter the Low Holds for opportunities that contain at least one of your chosen bookmaker if there is a specific bookmaker you need to turnover funds for. 

2. Middles on match markets

Betsniper subscription required = Advanced
Expected loss = 0% to -3%
Frequency to bet = Medium to high (depending on the quality of the middle)
Variance of outcome = High (need to play lots of middles and could have large swings in outcomes when middles hit)

Middles can be a great to turnover money in your account. Similar to low holds, we only want to be betting on match markets whether that is handicaps or total points.

Bookmakers are insensitive to these bets and it makes your account look more retail. Especially if you are betting close to the event starting. You can filter the middles screen for match markets as well as order the bets by expected loss.

The added benefit of betting middles, is that there is a non-zero chance you can win. If the actual probability of the middle hitting is greater than the expected loss, then in the long-run this is a positive EV bet. So you may be turning money over but also winning.

Calculating the percentage chance of a middle hitting can be quite difficult but you can use historical data to get a quick estimate. In the middles screen, there is a column called "Breakeven". This is the percentage chance this middle needs to hit for this bet to positive EV in the long-run.

The core thing we want to focus on is finding middles with very low loss percentages. To this, you should always filter the page by ROI loss. We also want to find opportunities with relatively low breakeven percentages.

Check out our article on Middles to get a better understanding of how to calculate profitable middles.

For these types of middles, we are okay to lose a bit as we are just trying to turn over money on liquid markets. But, there is still a non-zero probability of the middle hitting which just adds another benefit if it does hit. If we get lucky, we might actually make some money from doing this strategy. At most we are taking a defined loss (whatever you are comfortable with). At best you actually may turn a profit. So it’s a win-win.

Below are some simulations where the expected loss of the middle is -3% and the expected likelihood of winning the middle is 1% (probably on the lower side) where if the middle hits we return 90%. Let's simulate this scenario over 500 bets and 1,000 simulations.

You can see from this simulation, when there is only a 1% chance of the middle hitting, you probably won't be able to turn a profit. But even in a bad scenario, you ROI loss is pretty minimal and you have been able to turnover lots of money on loquid markets.

Below are some simulations where the expected loss of the middle is -3% and the expected likelihood of winning the middle is 3% (probably closer to fair) where if the middle hits we return 90%. Let's simulate this scenario over 500 bets and 1,000 simulations.

When the chance of the middle increases, our returns improve. Almost in more than half the simulations you would breakeven or be profitable. However, these are not massive profits but the intention from this startegy is just to turnover money (not make money).

3. Pinnacle EV match markets

Betsniper subscription required = Advanced
Expected loss = 0% to 3%
Frequency to bet = Medium
Variance of outcome = Medium

As discussed above, we want to bet on match markets because they are highly liquid and bookmakers have high limits for these markets. If we can bet on these markets close to the start of events, this is seen as retail betting activity that bookmakers are happy to invite.

You can use the Betsniper Benchmark EV tool to compare prices to Pinnacle. The key thing is we are comparing to the Pinnacle de-vigged odds i.e. we have removed the bookmaker margin from the odds. As a long-term strategy if you can get value above the Pinnacle price, it is a long-term profitable betting strategy.

Check out this study which explains why using de-vigged probabilities is the best way to identify edge. Here is a case study showing how Pinnacle is a good benchmark for soccer.

The key here is to only bet match markets and only bet close to the start of matches (within a few hours). You will be able to stake a bit more on these match markets and they won’t be heavily scrutinised by bookmakers.

Often the edges on these bets are <3% but we are not necessarily doing this for the gain, more so to turn over funds on high liquidity betting markets. Over a handful of bets you may lose, but if you bet this strategy enough you will be breakeven or profitable.

NOTE: Pinnalce is not necessarily the best benchmark for ALL markets. But for major sports and on major markets (moneyline, spreads, total points), Pinnacle have the largest limits and smallest spreads which is a very good sign

4. Positive EV multis

Betsniper subscription required = Pro
Expected loss = 0% to 20+%
Frequency to bet = High
Variance of outcome = High

This may sound like an odd suggestion, but hear me out.

In most instances, multis are extremely negative EV. Hence why bookmakers enjoy marketing them so aggressively. When the average punter puts on a multi, they are actually compounding negative edge. The negative EV of each leg is different from book to book and from market to market. But on average we can call it around 7%. So when you put three legs in a multi, here is what is happening to your edge.

-7% x -7% x -7% = -19.56% edge to the bookmaker

To better understand bookie margin check out our article where we do a deep dive on what the margin is and how you can calculate it.

So that means, every time you are putting on a three leg-multi you are effectively trading $1 for 80 cents, resulting in a ~-20% loss over time.

On the other hand, if we know that each of our legs are positive EV, now we are actually compounding the edge in our favour. You can only do this by using a tool like Betsniper to find Positive EV bets (or if you have some other verified method of doing this). For instance, let’s say we have 3 bets that have a 5% edge. Note they have to be from seperate games as bookmakers will apply correlation factors in the same game that might remove some of our edge.

5% + 5% + 5% = 15.76%

Individually, each bet only has a 5% edge, but together in a multi as we are multiplying positive expected values together the edge for the multi is 15.76% - which is massive! From playing this multi in infinity we can expected for $1 to get back $1.15.

Now, what I did not cover in the calculation above is variance. Naturally as you play multis, your odds are higher which adds a lot of variance to your results. Variance is just a part of any betting strategy, it can just be magnified playing positive EV multis.

Let's look at a simulation playing a multi at $5 odds with a 10% edge over 500 bets and 1,000 simulations.

After 500 bets, the theory would suggest there is a 86.0% chance your are profitable. If you only do 60 bets, there is a 68.5% chance you would be ahead. The more bets you play, the quicker to profitability you would get. As long as you play enough volume your results will converge to profitability.

The reason this is good for your account is bookmakers are very happy to accept multi activity. It makes your account look more retail as opposed to a more sophisticated punter who puts down big stakes on singles. You are also able to play these multis close to match starting and it's much harder for bookmakers to evaluate sharp multi betting activity. Check out more my positive EV multi results over the last year and a half

This is a much higher risk strategy compared to the other strategies suggested in this article but can be a great way to still make money while keeping a low profile.

5. Placing negative EV bets (aka mug betting)

Betsniper subscription required = Basic
Expected loss = -3% to -7%
Frequency to bet = High
Variance of outcome = Medium

The simplest and least sophisticated strategy is just to place some negative EV bets or mug bets. You know those bets most of your mates place when they go to the footy or the races where they are just putting in on because they have a “feeling”. Those are all negative EV bets.

From time to time, it’s okay to just have a punt. That betting activity is good for your account. Make sure to bet on low margin markets like head to head, lines and total points. The lower the margin of the market, the lower your expected loss will be in the long run. On these sorts of markets the margin tends to be ~5%.

Mug bets are available all the time. 99.99% of the odds on any bookmaker at a given time is probably a mug bet. These bets can be singles, multis or same game multis. It’s nothing complicated, it’s literally just putting a bet on for fun. Because when you bet for fun, mathematically you are always going to have negative EV.

The variance of the outcome can be interesting because in the short-run you may actually win some bets. But after a long enough time period your return from this strategy will be slightly negative.

5a) Laying off mug bets

If you do not want to have exposure on your bets you can also hedge out your mug bets.

This is effectively the same as "Low holds" but you may be taking a bigger loss percentage.

A very easy way is to just bet on all the H2H prices on one bookmaker and hedge them at another bookmaker with the best prices. It's super retail betting activity and if you are able to get top prices, your loss will be less than 4%.

You can also look to Betfair to lay off mug bets and sometimes get very small losses.

If you do want to lay off mug bets, the best thing you can do for your account is bet on horses. Currently Betsniper does not support horse racing. But if you have the time and patience, if you are able to lay off horse bets with Betfair your account will be in good stead. It can be a bit timely to find good lay opportunities but for bookmakers, horse racing is unbelievably high margin product.

When and how often should you implement these strategies?

It is always a good practice to always be implementing at least one of these strategies throughout your lifetime of betting on any account. It will go a long way to extending your account tenure and ability to make money.

This is particularly true if you have just opened up a new account. At the start of any new account, you want to prime the account. If you go in and start hitting 10% arbitrage bets for $1,000 your account will quickly get flagged and limited. Rather, for the first few weeks, try and implement multiple of the strategies listed above so that your profile can be profiled as more retail. Then after a couple of weeks, you can pick up the volume of positive EV and arbitrage betting.

Once your account is up and running, a good rule of thumb is to have at least 25% to 50% of your bets fall under the category of one of the five options above. There is no magic number but you want a good mix of bets.

For most of these strategies, the opportunities are really easy to find, especially if you have a tool like Betsniper. At any given point in the day you can login and have multiple different options for turnover opportunities.

Book in a strategy call

If you have any questions or want to build a personalised plan for increasing the longevity of your accounts, we are offering free strategy calls.

On these calls we can go through everything you want to know about these strategies as well as help you build out your plan to ensure your accounts stay open for as long as possible. We try and make these strategies as personal as possible ensuring that it fits your financial goals, schedule and preferences.