Middle betting is an advanced betting strategy that some punters use to make money from the bookies. It takes advantage of the fact that each bookmaker independently sets their lines which leads to discrepancies we can take advantage of.

Whether you are an expert or looking to get started with middles, this guide will cover everything you will ever need to know to start adding middles to your betting strategy.

What is middle betting?

Middle betting, often referred to simply as "middling," is a sports betting strategy where a bettor places bets on both sides of the same game at different points, aiming to exploit changes in the point spread or total over/under line. The goal is to win both bets if the final score falls within a specific range, known as the "middle."

See the image below is a list of all the different available middles. You can see the bet and then there are two lines that are different, which means you can play an over on the lower line and an under on the upper line and hope the result lands in the middle.

How middle betting works?

To find a middle, you first need to find two lines that are different on a given market. Take for example Derrick Jones Jr points.

You then would place two bets:

1. On the lower line, you will bet over i.e. Over 7.5 points on Dabble

2. On the higher line, you will bet under i.e. Under 8.5 points on Sportsbet

No matter what happens, one of the bets will win. However, if Derrick Jones Jr has 8 points, both bets will win

How to determine your stakes for middle bets?

The easiest way to determine your stake is to use a calculator. Essentially the calculator will choose stakes that ensure the payout for both bets are the same. This calculation is an optimisation calculation as minimises the loss when the middle does not hit and maximises the win when it does hit.

In the calculator, you need to input:

• The lower and upper line

• The odds for both bets

• The stake for the lower line

It will then calculate the optimal stake for the upper line.

So the calculator shows you that, there is -7.10% expected loss when the middle does not hit but an 85.81% ROI when the middle does hit.

How to determine which middles to play?

Not all middles are created equal. When determining which middle to play you first need to decide what is the intention of the middle. There are two main reasons to play a middle:

1. Make a profit: these are positive EV middles where the likelihood of the middle occurring outweighs the downside of losing

2. Turnover funds: middle opportunities where you are trying to turnover some funds in your account

For turning over funds, the goal here is just to try and minimise your loss as the expectation of a middle hitting is very low. This is usually good for match lines or match totals. These markets are highly liquid and very sharp, meaning bookmakers do not review your account when placing these bets. So you can bet large amounts and it will be good for your account sustainability.

When trying to play middles to win, there are a few more things to think about:

Calculating EV of a middle bet

Here is a quick review of how to calculate EV:

Expected Value = (Probability of losing x Amount if lose) + (Probability of winning x Amount if win).

When evaluating middles, we use percentages rather tan dollar amounts (as the dollar amount will be different for everyone depending on how much they bet).

So let’s continue with our Derrick Jones Jr example

• If the middle hits, you will have a 85.81% ROI

• If the middle loses, you will lose -7.10% ROI

To determine whether this is EV or not, we need to estimate the probability of winning (or losing). For this example, let’s use a few different probabilities of the middle hitting to explore what happens to EV:

E.g.1 there is a 1% probability of Derrick Jones Jr getting 8 points

EV = (85.81% x 1%) + (-7.10% x 99%) = -6.17%

E.g.2 there is a 5% probability of Derrick Jones Jr getting 8 points

EV = (85.81% x 5%) + (-7.10% x 95%) = -2.46%

E.g.3 there is a 10% probability of Derrick Jones Jr getting 8 points

EV = (85.81% x 10%) + (-7.10% x 90%) = 2.19%

As the likelihood of the middle hitting increases, the EV of the middle increases. Ultimately, what we are looking for, is a high enough chance the middle will hit that it outweighs the loss.

But how do we calculate the likelihood of the middle hitting?

Estimating the occurrence of a middle

This is ultimately the key part of middle betting. However, the truth is that estimating this number is close to impossible (without having some margin for error).

For some middles, you may be able to use betting odds to determine the likelihood of it occurring. For instance, you wanted to bet over 1.5 goals and under 2.5 goals in soccer, there are betting markets for “Exactly 2 goals” that can be used as an estimation of the likelihood of middle hitting.

However, for most middles, there won’t be a betting market parallel that you can use as a proxy to determine the probability of a middle hitting.

One way we can try and estimate the probability of a middle hitting is by doing some basic historical analysis. Let's continue with our Derrick Jones example of getting exactly eight points.

I can use the Betsniper prop tool to get his game log data.

So for this season he has played 59 games. He has score 8 points on 5 occasions. We can then estimate the implied probability of 5/59 = 8.47%. This has some margin of error but will give you a good indication. However, this analysis is only as good as your understanding of the data. Historical data is only a fair predictor of the future if there have been no changes i.e. position changes, key players out etc.

How to quickly identify a good middle bet

Although it is always recommended to do some analysis to determine the EV of a middle bet. There are some key elements we can always look for that will help us narrow down our options.

• Low risk: the lower the risk of the bet, the better. We should always look for middles with very low risk. No matter the middle, it is always highly unlikely they will hit, so you need to have lots of attempts before hitting one. Keeping your risk low means you can do lots of middles without feeling the loses.

• Low line: a lower line tends to be better as there is less variability in the range of outcomes meaning a higher likelihood the middle occurs

• Low variance: a low variance indicates that the range of outcomes does not vary a lot from the middle. If you have high variance, it means the likelihood of the middle hitting is less likely. Two middles may be the exact same line and ROI but the one with lower variance is a much better middle to take

• Multi-point middles: the bigger the middle, the larger percentage chance the middle will hit. However, bigger middles usually come with larger downsides, so we will still need to factor that in

Using the middle calculator to determine whether a middle is EV

We have built a middle calculator that will help you calculate your stakes as well as percentage of time you need the middle to hit for your bet to be profitable. This is critical information when determining whether you think a middle is EV or not.

Continuing on for the Derrick Jones Jr point middle the calculator has calculated for the middle to be profitable it needs to occur 7.64%. Along the x-axis, we have the likelihood of the middle betting. You can see as the likelihood increases, the expected value of the middle increases.

How to find middle bets?

Finding middle bets on your own requires time, effort and lots of scrolling. You need to go through every bookie and identify where there is a mismatch of lines.

The much easier way to find middles is by using a tool like Betsniper. The Betsniper middle tool scrapes all the odds, cleans it and then organises it so that you can quickly find the best middles. You are able to filter the table by sport and bet.

You can filter middles with the lowest risk.

Sometimes there are middles that are also arbitrage bets. The middle on Box Nix (at the top of the page), is a chance to get a double payout while risking nothing! To find out more about arbitrage betting, please check out our comprehensive guide!

Or you can filter for middles with the biggest spread.

As you can see, we show you all possible available middles in one spot saving you time and effort while also providing you with the best value.

Advantages of middle betting

There are many reasons why punters choose to do middle betting:

• Potential for profit: if you are patient enough and play EV bets, middle betting can be a profitable betting strategy with big wins

• Risk mitigation: by covering both sides of the bet, losses are capped and your bankroll will not diminish as fast when you go on a bad run as with positive EV betting

• Increased account turnover: middle betting can be a great way to turnover funds in your account especially on retail markets like match totals and match lines

Risks of middle betting

Although there are many advantages to middle betting, it is also important to consider some of the drawbacks

• Difficult to finding quality opportunities: identifying profitable middle bets requires constant monitoring and evaluation of opportunities. Over time, as you better understand your risk appetite choosing which middles to play becomes easier, but the key to save yourself time is by having a tool to find the middles for you like Betsniper

• High capital requirement: as you are betting both sides, to get going with middle betting can require a bit of capital. Moreover, you need to be have this capital deployed across numerous bookmakers in order to take advantage of the best middles

• Large bet volume needed: For meaningful returns, middle betting typically requires placing a high volume of bets, making it time-consuming and potentially overwhelming without a dedicated strategy.

• Vulnerability to odds shifts: sudden changes in odds can turn a middle bet into a loss, especially if markets shift quickly or unexpectedly before both bets are placed. If you have access to Betsniper, it is easy to use our odds screen to find the best next bet to place to ensure you minimise your loss

• Long winless streaks: middle betting can involve extended periods without hitting a middle, testing a bettor’s patience and resolve. Staying disciplined during these dry spells is crucial to long-term success.

Which markets are best for middle betting?

Ultimately, it depends on your risk-appetite and your own personal strategy, but below are my favourite middle bets.

Match lines and match totals: although they have a low likelihood of hitting, I am able to put down large bets and take relatively small losses (aim for less than 3%). This is great for my account sustainability and allows me to increase my stakes on my other punting activity such as surebets and positive EV.

Player props for NBA: there are a few reasons why NBA player props are great for arbs:

• Comprehensive bookie offering: odds available for a bunch of player props leading to discrepancies between bookies that we can take advantage of

• Low lines and low variances: lots of props offered on low lines as well as stats that have low variance e.g. rebounds, assists

• Low risk middles available: everyday there is at least a couple of low risk middles that are definitely EV in the long-run

Advice for succesful middle betting

Middle betting is quite an advanced betting strategy. Here is some advice to increase the chances of your success:

• Timing and Patience: It’s crucial to only take positive EV opportunities. Patience is essential; not every opportunity is worth pursuing, so focus on quality over quantity to avoid unnecessary risks. By using a tool like Betsniper, there are countless positive EV opportunities every day. You have to remember that you are hoping for a long shot to happen when a middle hits, this means you may play 20+ middles before you hit a winner.

• Bankroll Management: Maintaining a well-structured bankroll is key to long-term success in middle betting, especially if you are just starting out. Setting limits on bet size relative to your bankroll helps prevent overexposure and allows you to endure losing streaks without significant impact. Sticking to these rules will help you manage the capital demands of middle betting more effectively.

• Accounts with funds deposited: you need to have accounts set up with all the bookmakers with funds deposited. You do not want to be scrambling to get money into an account when a middle opportunity arises.

• Try and calculate EV when betting middles: if you are just going to take middles blindly, it will be a losing strategy. Try and use the techniques above to estimate the likelihood of the middle hitting and then calculate if that bet is EV.

• Stick to middles on low lines with low variance: you are best off targeting middles with a low line and low variance, it will increase your chance of winning significantly.

Is middle betting profitable?

Middle betting can definitely be possible if you are dedicated, patient and smart about your picks. If you have made it this far, you will be in a good position to start your middle betting journey.

Below are some examples of middle bets we shared publicly last year that hit. You can see in our posts, we explain our reasoning for the middle:

Example #1: nice 4-point middle on the AFL total points

Example #2: 2-point middle on an extremely low line with relatively low variance

Example #3: sometimes you have to make the choice between higher upside or protect your downside

Example #4: only a one-point middle but low risk and low line makes for a good EV middle opportunity

Conclusion

In summary, middle betting is an advanced strategy that, when done correctly, can be profitable. It requires patience, dedication, and a tolerance for downswings, making it ideal for someone who enjoys the thrill of seeking a "lottery ticket" upside without risking large losses. By identifying line discrepancies across bookmakers, you can create opportunities for both low-risk turnover and potentially profitable plays. While this strategy requires both capital and commitment, especially given the high volume of bets and the likelihood of extended dry spells, using tools like Betsniper can streamline the process and increase efficiency.

Middle betting is not without challenges—finding quality opportunities, managing bankroll, and navigating the risks of line changes and odds shifts are essential considerations. However, with thoughtful risk management, strategic bet selection, and a focus on positive EV bets, middle betting can be a rewarding strategy that offers both long-term sustainability and the potential for significant profits.