For punters who are looking to make long-term gains over the bookies, positive EV betting in Australia is one of the best, yet more advanced strategies to learn.

In this guide, we will cover everything you need to know. From the basics of understanding expected value, as well as all the advanced strategies you can implement to consistently beat the bookies.

What is Positive Expected Value Betting (EV)

When we want to bet, we do not want luck on our side. Rather we want maths. Maths doesn’t lie. The concept of positive EV betting is making money bets where you have the edge over the book. This does not mean you win every bet. In fact, you actually might lose more than you win, but as long as the odds are favourable, you will be up.

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that helps you weighs the probabilities of outcomes and determines what the expected outcome is to be (on average). It measures the potential profit or loss you can expect if you placed the same bet repeatedly.

It is important to understand the EV calculation:

EV=(Probability of Winning × Payout)−(Probability of Losing × Stake)

Here’s a breakdown of the formula:

• Probability of Winning: The likelihood (as a percentage) that your bet will win.

• Payout: The total return you’ll receive if the bet wins, including your stake.

• Probability of Losing: The likelihood (as a percentage) that your bet will lose.

• Stake: The amount of money you risk.

If the result of this calculation, you have a positive EV bet.

But here is the dirty secret of the gambling industry. 99% of the odds you see posted by gambling agencies are negative EV. Let me explain:

Why are most bets negative EV?

Most bets are negative EV because bookmakers include a margin in their odds – this is how they make their money. Bookmaker odds are generally very sharp, meaning they accurately reflect the probability of outcomes. If they aren’t initially accurate, they adjust quickly. Bookmakers are billion-dollar companies that specialise in setting profitable odds, so it’s safe to assume they’re getting it right. Sportsbet’s parent’s company has a tiday $50B valuation. So ye, their odds are pretty hard to beat (for most…)

The bookie margin is easiest to understand with line betting, where the odds are close to even. For example, in a 50/50 market, you might see odds of 1.90 to 1.90. This suggests an equal chance of winning. In a fair market, you should be getting 100% return on 50% odds i.e. 2.00 odds. But instead of a 100% return on your bet, you only get 90%. The missing 10% is the bookmaker's margin.

This margin means that anyone betting casually or for fun is almost always starting at a disadvantage. Over time, the house edge ensures that most punters will lose.

How to calculate the true bookie price?

In order to get the true implied probability of an event, we need to remove the margin from bookie prices. This will give us the true probability of the outcome (as suggested by the odds). The true price, often refereed to the no-vig price (vig = vigorish = bookie margin), act as the benchmark odds you need to beat to have positive EV.

In order to convert odds into no-vog odds, you can follow 4 steps:

1. Convert odds into implied probabilities i.e. 1 / Odds

2. Sum the implied probabilities together (these will equal above 100%)

3. Remove the margin by dividing each implied [probability by the sum of the probabilities to normalise them back to 100%

4. Convert the adjusted probabilities back into no-vig odds i.e 1 / Adjusted Probability

Or, you can just use our calculator. Simply put the two odds into our “Fair Odds 2-Way (no margin)” calculator.

How do we calculate true odds?

In order for a bet to be EV, the true odds need to be greater than the no-vig odds. But how do you find the true odds?

Ultimately, this is the hardest part of positive EV betting. There are some people out there, who have built their own models and originate odds. However, to be able to do this successfully, you need to have invested more time and effort into odds creation that billion dollar companies. This is very unlikely and frankly, not even worth trying.

But this is the core of positive EV betting. How can you find “true odds” greater than the no-vig.

There is another way…

Wisdom of the crowds - how to find positive EV betting opportunities

The concept of Wisdom of the Crowd hinges on the idea that a large and diverse group of people can collectively make highly accurate predictions. When applied to sports betting, this principle suggests that betting markets—comprising sharp bettors, bookmakers, and public bettors—work similarly to a crowd, producing odds that reflect a near-true probability of an outcome. This assumption of market efficiency stands to reason, as bookmakers are highly profitable businesses that consistently refine their odds to ensure they maintain an edge.

At its core, betting markets operate as efficient markets due to the sharp bettors who place their bets early and help shape the lines. Bookmakers then expose these lines to public appraisal, and as the market becomes more “liquid” (meaning more bets are placed), odds typically settle into their most accurate form. By removing the bookmaker’s margin (vig), we can calculate the no-vig odds—a strong estimate of the “true odds” for a given outcome. This no-vig market average provides a benchmark for bettors to identify value. We calculate this price across the entire market to get a market average no-vig price. The key here is that you need enough independent odds setters in order to have a consensus.

The core concept here is we want to find odds that are significantly greater than the market average no-vig price.

How to implement a positive EV betting strategy

Finding EV opportunities

Betsniper makes it so easy to find positive EV bets. All day, every day there are hundreds of EV bets available.

Betsniper processes over 100,000 data points, meticulously cleans and organises them to determine the market's fair value and pinpoint odds that exceed it

Understanding what it means to follow a positive EV strategy

So, in theory, all the bets listed on the screen above are mathematically profitable bets to take in the long run. But this does not mean they are all going to win. In fact, you will lose. A lot. But on the margins, you will be gaining margin on the bookies. At the end of the day, it is a volume play. You want to be playing as many positive EV bets as possible. The more bets you play that are positive EV, the more money you will make.

Let’s really dig into the numbers to paint this picture. Say the odds of a bet are 2.05. And the true no-vig market price is 2.00. This means we have a 2.5% edge.

Let’s say you play this out over 1,000 bets. Because the no-vig market price is 2.00, which is an implied probability of 50%, we will assume to win 500 bets. But this also means we are going to lose 500 bets as well.

However, let’s assume we are betting $100 every time.

• When we win: 2.05 * $100 * 500 bets= $102,500 = $52,500 (excluding the stakes)

• When we lose: -$100 * 500 bets= -$100,500 = $50,000 (excluding the stakes)

• Profit: $2,500, 2.5% ROI

The bigger the discrepancy between the odds you bet and the true no-vig market price, the more you can expect to win in the long-run.

Although, there is more risk involved, the ROI for positive EV betting is actually better than arbitrage betting. However, you have to master variance.

Variance and how that impacts results

Variance is an inherent part of positive EV betting, and it plays a crucial role in shaping both the short-term and long-term outcomes of your betting strategy. You’ll experience streaks where it feels like every bet wins, and others where losses pile up. This is normal, and over a large enough sample size, the results will converge back to the expected value.

Here are some concepts you need to understand:

Bankroll management: this is crucial, particualry for new punters, as you look to build your bankroll when starting with positive EV betting. You need to think carefully about the amount you stake per bet. You can use the Kelly Criterion calculator that provides you the optimal stake based on your bankroll, your risk tolerance and the size of your edge. Other positive EV punters just use a flat stake where every bet is the same size. The key here is that your stake should never really be more than 2% of your entire bankroll.

Expected maximum drawdown: at its core, betting is about probabilities, and even with a clear edge, losing streaks are inevitable due to variance. The maximum expected drawdown represents the worst-case downswing you might encounter in your bankroll over a given period or number of bets. Being aware of this figure helps set realistic expectations and prepares you mentally and financially for the lows.

Let’s take a look at what this looks like for our 2.05 bet with a 2.5% edge over 1,000 bets. We are going to use this amazing calculator to input your positive EV betting strategy and explore various simulations, giving you a clear picture of how different scenarios might unfold.

So we are running this simulation over 1,000 bets. We are also going to calculate two probabilities:

• What is the probability that the largest drawdown will be 25 units or more?

• What is the probability that we actually return 5% (doubling our expected performance) after 1000 bets?

This is a relatively standard EV bet. Here are the results:

• The expected maximum drawdown over 1,000 bets is 32 units. This does not mean at the end of 1,000 bets you are down 32 units. It measures the largest decrease from a peak to a trough in your bankroll during the betting strategy.

• The probability of having a drawdown of at least 25 units is 65% - that is likely to occur

• The probability that you actually return 5% over 1,000 bets is 21.46%

If you run these numbers again, they will be slightly different because it’s just a simulation. But at a large enough simulation they will begin to converge. I think this is a crucial tool for positive EV betters to understand. You will better get a sense for the shape of your returns and also not get spooked when you go on a bad run.

But what do the results looks like for a bet with higher odds i.e. lower chance of winning. Let’s run a simulation of 1,000 bets where we take 4.00 odds with a 5% edge. The questions this time we will ask are:

• What is the probability that the largest drawdown will be 25 units or more?

• What is the probability that we actually return 10% (doubling our expected performance) after 1000 bets?

When playing EV bets with higher odds, the variance can be even crazier:

• The expected maximum drawdown over 1,000 bets is 53 units.

• The probability of having a drawdown of at least 25 units is 96.5% - almost guaranteed

• The probability that you actually return 10% over 1,000 bets is 17.49%

Recommend positive EV strategy

At a high-level, as long as the there is positive expected value, you can be agnostic to the bet. But here is the strategy I follow:

• Expected value > 2%: I want to give myself a bit of an edge, as the no-vig market price will have some error boundaries (both up and down)

• Number of books ≥ 6: To get a good no-vig market price, you would want at least six unique bookmakers providing odds for the market

• Odds < 3.00: My preference is to play EV bets where the odds are udner 3 as the variance can get pretty hectic

How much can you make betting positive EV?

How much you can make betting positive EV depends on two main factors: the number of bets you place and the size of your stakes. The more bets you make and the larger your stakes (within proper bankroll management), the greater your potential profit. As long as you consistently bet with a positive EV% and have a long enough time horizon, the math ensures that you’ll be profitable over time. Variance may cause short-term swings, but your edge will yield consistent returns in the long run.

Below are my results using Betsniper for the NBA in 2024/25. I would spend around 30 minutes every morning placing these bets across 4 months.

This does not include my winnings from EV mulits. To find out how to generate even more positive EV, check out our guide here.

What are the best markets and sports for positive EV betting?

As mentioned above, at the end of the day, it really does not matter the sport or the market. EV is all created equal. In saying that, here are some thoughts

Markets

It is really hard to find EV plays on match markets. This markets rarely differentiate between bookmakers and even if they do, it is not enough to have a long-term profitable edge.

If you do want to find an edge on match markets, check our article explaining beating bookmakers with our Pinnacle EV tool

The best markets for EV plays are player props. This is because each bookmaker independently sets their own odds which can cause some significant discrepancies.

Sports

The best sports for EV betting are the sports that have:

• Lots of stats

• Lots of bookmakers pricing up markets (for two-sided player prop markets)

• Lots of games

By far and away the sport with the most positive EV action on Betsniper is NBA. But other US sports exhibit some of the same traits such as MLB and NHL (except their odds offering in Australia is not nearly as comprehensive as NBA)

What are the advantages of positive EV betting?

• Mathematical Edge: every bet you take, you can feel confident that it in the long-run it is a profitable bet

• Data-Driven Decisions: remove any analysis, guess work or emotion from betting and bet purely on mathematical edge

• Compounding Returns: you can compound your returns daily, over time, your bank roll will become bigger and you can increase your stake size

• Encourages Discipline: Requires structured bankroll management, reducing the risks of reckless gambling.

What are the risks of positive EV betting?

• Variance: there will be both positive and negative streaks, variance will be guaranteed

• Bankroll Mismanagement: you need to have a proper bankroll management to ensure that you do not spend through your bankroll irresponsibly

• High volume: in order to make decent returns, you need to play a high volume of bets

• Bookmaker Limitations: Successful positive EV bettors may face account restrictions or bans from bookmakers.

• Error Margins: Misestimating the true odds can lead to misplaced bets and reduced profitability. This may occur if placing bets where there were not enough data points to generate a fair no-vig market price

Who should use positive EV betting?

Positive EV betting is a more advanced strategy. If this is your first time experimenting with betting strategies, I would not recommend positive EV. You would be better off arbitrage betting, which is a form of positive EV vetting where you just lock in your profit, rather than handling the variance.

If you want to get into positive EV vetting, you need to have a good grasp over the theory and understand the risks. Moreover, anyone looking to get into positive EV betting needs to have access to multiple bookmakers with funds deposited. You can start with any size bankroll, but in order to be liquid across enough bookmakers to take advantage of all the opportunities you do need to start with a relatively decent size bankroll.

Can you implement a positive EV betting strategy in Australia!

Australia ranks among the world’s largest betting markets, offering an unparalleled range of odds. This diversity creates numerous positive EV opportunities, especially in more niche markets where bookmakers may misprice events. Coupled with strong demand and fierce competition, Australia provides an ideal environment for implementing a positive EV betting strategy.

FAQs

1. What does positive EV mean in betting?
Positive EV (Expected Value) indicates that a bet is mathematically expected to be profitable over time. In simple terms, if you repeatedly place a bet with a positive EV, your long-term returns will exceed your losses—even if you lose more individual bets than you win.

2. How do you calculate EV in sports betting?
EV is determined using the formula:
  EV = (Probability of Winning × Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Stake)
This calculation helps you assess whether the odds offered give you an edge over the bookmaker by comparing your potential gains against the risks.

3. How do you identify EV bets or +EV plays?
To spot positive EV opportunities, compare the odds offered by bookmakers to the “true” or no-vig odds—odds after removing the bookmaker’s margin. If the offered odds exceed the fair, no-vig odds, then the bet is considered +EV. Many bettors use EV calculators and odds comparison tools to find these discrepancies.

4. Is EV betting profitable?
Yes, EV betting can be profitable in the long run when you consistently identify bets with a mathematical edge and practice disciplined bankroll management. While short-term variance may cause losing streaks, over a large number of bets, the profitable bets will outweigh the losses.

5. What are the advantages and risks of positive EV betting?
Advantages:

• Mathematical Edge: Bets are based on sound statistical analysis rather than chance.

• Data-Driven Decisions: Removes emotional bias from your wagering.

• Compounding Returns: Consistent positive EV bets can gradually grow your bankroll.

Risks:

• Variance: Even positive EV bets can experience extended losing streaks.

• Bankroll Mismanagement: Incorrect stake sizing can quickly deplete funds.

• High Volume Requirement: Profitability depends on placing a significant number of bets.

• Bookmaker Restrictions: Success may lead to account limitations by some bookmakers.

6. How do I start with EV betting?
Begin by mastering the basics—learn how to calculate no-vig odds and understand the EV formula. Use EV calculators, odds comparison tools, and simulate betting scenarios before wagering real money. Finally, adopt a disciplined staking strategy (like the Kelly Criterion or flat staking) and maintain accounts with multiple bookmakers to access the best odds.

7. Which markets and sports offer the best positive EV opportunities?
The most promising EV opportunities are typically found in markets where bookmakers set odds independently, such as player prop markets. Popular sports like the NBA, MLB, and NHL often provide abundant statistical data and multiple odds providers, enhancing the potential to identify discrepancies and secure a positive EV edge.

Want to speak to a positive EV betting expert?

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