How To Find Value With Dabble Pick'Em Lines

We recently just pushed Pick’Em lines as one of the options on our odds screen. Although these bets can’t be taken as singles, they can be used as a data-point to help you identify potential value bets.

If you do not know how Pick’Em works, check out our blog where we explain how the product works

In this article we will explain why these lines can show you where there is value as well as practical tips as how you can actually find these value bets.

Why are the Pick’Em lines valuable data?

The difference between over-under markets and over-only markets

To understand why pick’em lines can provide valuable data, it is important to differentiate between odds where bookmakers provide over and under odds compared to just over odds.

When bookmakers provide over and under odds for props they provide much more information because we are able to calculate the true probability of the event from the odds. We can do this by removing the bookmaker edge. When bookmakers offer an under market they have accountability to try and make their line as accurate as possible (usually to try and make it as close to a 50/50 probability as possible).

This is because now punters can bet on either the over or the under so the bookmaker is incentivised to set the line correctly and price accordingly. The bookmaker will then make their profit on the margin. Usually on prop markets, the bookmaker margin is ~6-8% which is actually quite favourable for the punter (compared to the other bookmaker offerings).

When bookmakers just offer over markets, they can get away with a lot. We are not able to calculate a true probability nor the margin. The margin on these bets can be massive and most bookmakers will much prefer punters taking just over markets because often the prices they offer provide terrible value.

Let’s take this bet as an example, Rayner 15+ disposals. The average odd is 1.5 (implied odds of 67%). This season has only hit this line 50% of the time.

Over only markets are not always bad, in fact you can find lots of value, however 99% of the time they provide terrible value OR worse value than over-under lines

This is why you will see most smaller bookmakers just offer over markets and not over/under markets. It’s lazy bookmaking. They place a massive margin on these bets so most (unsophisticated) punters will just bet it as it’s super retail and not know they are getting slaughtered.

To conduct top-down expected value betting, we need bookmakers to quote both over and under odds, only then can we strip out their margin, derive the true event probability and market-clearing price, and base our wagers on a solid mathematical foundation.

Are Pick’Em lines different to other lines?

Not really, they are effectively the same. Dabble will only include options in their Pick’Ems when the likelihood of the over or under occurring is around 50/50 (based on their models). In fact, for a 3-leg All-in Pick-Em (the most common option), you need to find bets that with more than 53.56% of the time to be profitable.

Pick’Em lines will not show as much nuanced as lines where they are priced to cents. But the information is still useful nonetheless.

For most markets, Dabble will have their actual prices for the market as well as their Pick’Em lines.

BUT, where Pick’Em lines become extra useful are for props that bookmakers to not price up. This is particularly useful for sports like AFL, NRL and MLB where bookmakers in Australia do not provide over and under markets for a lot of the prop markets. We can use the Pick’Em lines as our market clearing lines and then identify if there may be value elsewhere.

How to find value with Dabble Pick’Em lines

There are three key ways we can find value using the Dabble Pick’Em lines from the odds screen:

1. Identify legs to include in our Pick’Ems where there is a difference in lines

2. Find over bets that are value compared to the Pick’Em line

3. Identify legs for Pick’Em that are value based off the prices of other bookmakers (see Pick’Em EV)

1. Play Pick’Em legs that are mis-priced

Using the Odds Screen and comparing lines, you can quickly identify if there are betting opportunities where the Pick’Em line is out from the market.

For a lot of prop markets, even when the line is out by one it can present a serious expected value opportunity. This is especially true for low variance markets

In this example, the over line on the Pick’Em is definitely value. This would be good leg to include in your Pick’Em for value. You are getting a free disposals at effectively the same price.

2. Find over bets that are value compared to the Pick’Em line

Because we are getting a market clearing price and projection, we can compare the Pick’Em line and price to over markets. If we can find an over bet where the:

• Line is the same or lower than the Pick’Em line AND

• Odds are significantly higher

This can be a betting opportunity

NOTE: Pick’Em lines odds are displayed as 1.87. These are the threshold odds for a 3-leg Pick’Em. When you remove the bookmaker margin they have an implied odd of 2.00 or implied probability of 50%

So we would be looking for opportunities where the odds are significantly greater than 2 and the line is the same or lower.

Take this Nick Daicos fantasy line as an example. Fantasy over unders are rarely priced up, but Dabble Pick’Em had the line set up 112.5 (it actually closed at 115.5). We can then compare this to the 110+ market (lower than 112.5)

The odds at Betright and even Dabble present no value. This is a perfect example of how bad odds can be when they just provide the over.

Because the line is 110+ we are also getting a couple of extra fantasy points. This is definitely valuable but also have to consider fantasy points are relatively higher variance stat. Ladbrokes are offering 2.02. This is probably around fair odds, maybe slightly EV.

However, we are getting 2.35 at Pointsbet. This presents a lot of EV. If we assume that the true odds are 2.00 (as suggested by the Pick’Em line), then we are getting 17.5% EV (plus we are also getting an extra three fantasy points).

PS - this bet also won 🤑

3. Identify legs for Pick’Em that are value based off the prices of other bookmakers

We can also use other bookmaker over and under prices to identify legs with the same line that would be profitable to include in your Pick’Ems.

To better understand how this works check out our article where we talk about how to beat Dabble Pick’Em.

Don't fall for this trap! We can't find infer value in Pick'Ems from over only markets

This is a common trap to new punters fall into. You cannot infer value just by looking at over prices. As discussed above, bookmakers put infinite margin on these prices so, in a vaccum, they provide no indication on true price. If you see all the bookmakers pricing a market lower than the Pick’Em odds, this should not be a reason to include this Pick’Em leg.

The best way to understand this is to look at an example. See Miles Bergman marks. Dabble has set the line at 5.5. If we look at the market odds, the average odds are 1.6 with odds ranging from 1.5-1.69. Some people might think that means there is value on the Bergman over 5.5 with Pick’Em. But you cannot imply true odds from over-only markets. Bookmakers can apply whatever margin they want on these markets.

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