How much to stake for Positive EV betting?

One of the most common question we get when talking to people who are getting into Positive EV betting is how much should I stake.

In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore the key concepts of staking for positive EV betting, examine different approaches, and provide evidence-based recommendations to help you optimise your bankroll management strategy.

Key Concepts of Staking for Positive EV Betting

What is Positive EV?

Positive expected value occurs when the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply. For example, if you calculate a team has a 60% chance of winning, but the bookmaker's odds suggest only a 50% chance, you've found a positive EV opportunity.

We have put together a video explaining everything about Positive EV betting

The Importance of Bankroll Management

Even if you are getting positive EV bets, if you have a poor staking strategy you can crash out. Why it is important to think about your stakes in relationship to your bankroll size:

• Risk of Ruin: The probability of losing your entire bankroll before achieving your profit goals

• Bankroll Growth: Optimizing stakes to maximize long-term growth while managing volatility

Different Staking Approaches

Flat/Level Staking

How it works: Bet the same amount on every wager, typically 1-2% of your bankroll.

Advantages:

• Simple to implement and track

• Eliminates emotional decision-making

• Makes it easy to calculate actual vs. expected ROI

• Reduces detection risk from sportsbooks

• Ideal for high-volume betting

Disadvantages:

• Doesn't optimise for varying edge sizes

• May miss opportunities to maximise growth

• Slower bankroll growth compared to optimal variable staking

Kelly Criterion

How it works: Uses the formula f = (bp - q) / b to determine the optimal fraction of bankroll to bet based on your calculated edge, where:

• f = fraction of bankroll to bet

• b = net odds received (decimal odds - 1)

• p = probability of winning

• q = probability of losing (1 - p)

Advantages:

• Mathematically optimal for maximising long-term growth

• Adjusts stake size based on edge strength

• Accounts for both probability and odds

Disadvantages:

• Requires accurate probability estimates

• Can recommend uncomfortably large stakes

• High volatility and drawdown potential

• Impractical for high-volume betting as need to constantly be calculating your updated bankroll and plugging numbers into a calculator

In the Betsniper Positive EV tool we have the Kelly criterion automatically built in. So you just input your bankroll and multiplier and for each bet we will calculate your optimise stake

Fractional Kelly

How it works: Bet a fraction (typically 25-50%) of the Kelly Criterion recommendation.

Advantages:

• Reduces volatility while maintaining growth optimization

• More psychologically comfortable

• Lower risk of ruin

• Accounts for estimation errors

Disadvantages:

• Still requires accurate probability calculations

• More complex than flat staking

• Can still recommend large stakes in high-edge situations

Fixed Percentage Staking

How it works: Bet a fixed percentage (usually 1-5%) of your current bankroll on each bet.

Advantages:

• Automatically adjusts to bankroll changes

• Simple to calculate

• Built-in risk management

Disadvantages:

• Constant recalculation needed

• Doesn't account for varying edge sizes

• Can be impractical for frequent betting

Target EV Staking

How it works: Adjust stake size to achieve a consistent expected value from each bet, typically 2-3% of bankroll.

Advantages:

• Maintains consistent expected growth

• Accounts for varying odds

• Reasonable risk management

Disadvantages:

• More complex calculations

• Requires accurate edge estimation

• Variable stake sizes may

Which staking strategy should I use?

The two most common approaches are using the Kelly Criterion or Flat Staking. These are the simplest and the most effective strategies.

Pro-Flat Staking Arguments

• Easier to implement and maintain discipline

• Reduces bookmaker detection risk

• Faster bet execution - crucial for catching edges before lines move

• Eliminates need for constant bankroll recalculation throughout the day

• More psychologically comfortable during losing streaks

• Allows easy tracking of actual vs expected ROI

• Better suited for high-volume betting (15+ bets per day)

• Reduces impact of probability estimation errors

Pro-Kelly Arguments

• Adjusts for varying edge sizes

• Mathematically proven to maximize long-term growth

• Accounts for both probability and odds in stake calculation

• Theoretically optimal for bankroll growth efficiency

• Can significantly outperform flat staking when edges are accurately estimated

Our take

If you are going to having a low volume of bets, you may benefit from the additional edge you can get from optimising individual bet sizes using Kelly Criteria. If you are going to use the Kelly Criterion, we would recommend applying a multiplier as without one the staking can be quite aggressive as well as never betting more than 5% of bankroll on any bet.

However, for most people implementing a Positive EV betting strategy. Your best approach is to flat stake. The best results from positive EV betting come from volume. We just want to play whenever there is EV and let variance play out in the long-run. The more we can bet the more return we can make. By flat staking, you can easily get lots of bet down and avoid detection from bookmakers of any sophisticated approach. If you are flat staking, an easy place to start is 1% of your bankroll. By betting 1% and taking consistently EV bets, there is close to no chance that you will crash out.

There have been many studies that illustrates when you have a systematic edge-finding process (i.e. Betsniper), placing many smaller bets consistently outperforms trying to identify a few "sure thing" opportunities.

Betsniper’s take: if you are implementing a high-volume positive EV betting strategy, which we say is the best strategy, then you should opt for betting 1% of your bankroll per bet

You can also still adjust your stakes up if the odds are lower and the EV is large. And vice versa if the odds are higher, you can lower your stake. However, we still recommend just keeping the same stake size to remove decision-making and keep you consistent.

Want to speak to a positive EV betting expert?

We have been playing positive EV betting strategies for 10+ years and have netted $200,000+ in profit over this period. We are offering free consulting call (normally valued at $299) for customers who sign up to our free 7-day trial.

• Answer all your questions about positive EV betting

• Share our insights and strategies that we use to make money from positive EV betting today

• Formulate a personalised plan that fits around your risk appetite, bankroll and lifestyle

If you would like to learn how to implement a positive EV betting strategy, please book in a call here.