Arbitrage betting can be one of the best ways to reliably make money from betting by eliminating all risks by hedging your bets. However, there are some rare circumstances where you could lose money.

These risks are most prevalent with soccer due to the different settlement rules across bookmakers.

If you have not already, check out our ultimate guide to arbitrage betting.

What are the settlement rules for soccer?

The variation in settlement rules is due to how bookmakers handle whether players start the match or come off the bench. Obviously, this would hugely impact the price. Each bookmaker has their own rules as to how they settle these bets. This can have major consequences for arbitrage betting.

Additionally, unlike other sports where there is usually one source for stats, bookmakers use a variety of sources to settle soccer markets. As a result, there is a possibility that your arbitrage bet may be settled both as losers (or both as winners) depending on the stat source the bookmaker uses.

Below we will go through each bookmaker’s rules and then discuss the implications.

Bookmakers that offer over/under markets

In order to place arbitrage bets, you will always need to use either Unibet or Tabtouch as these are the only bookmakers in Australia that provide under odds.

If the player does not start but comes off the bench, the bet is void (this is especially important for when betting unders)

Bookmakers that offer only over markets

There is a lot more variety for the over odds which are always just one-sided markets.

How does this impact arbitrage betting?

Players coming off the bench

So, let’s say you put an arbitrage bet on Kyle Walker-Peters.

f he starts the game, then both bets are active and you have locked in a tidy 9.37% profit 🎯.

If he is not even named in the squads or does not get a minute of play, then both bets are voided and you lose nothing. No stress.

However, let’s say he starts on the bench and then comes on at the 60th minute. The under bet with Unibet will be void, but your bet on Sportsbet will be active. Now you have some liability on this game and there is a chance you will lose money.

In fact, in these scenarios, there is a much higher likelihood your bet will lose as tour player has limited time to hit the over.

Now, there is always a chance that in the 30 minutes Kyle Walker-Peters plays he gets a shot on target off and you actually win your bet. But we don’t really want to be playing that game.

This is the danger of arbitrage betting with soccer.

Bookmakers settling bets differently

is scenarios can happen in any sport, although it is rare. I have once been on the fortunate end of things when my Kentavious Caldwell Pope arbitrage bet was settled as a winner on both the under and over 🤑.

But it can also go the other way, where both your bets are settled as losers. From the table above, it seems that all bookmakers do mostly use the similar source. However, market to market they might use different sources. Anyway, all of this is to say, is that there is a possibility that your two bets placed for the arbitrage bet are both settled as losers. See the example below, where Van Dijk to get over 71.5 passes was settled as a winner on Bet365 but on Pointsbet it was a loser

You can always try and argue your case with the bookmaker. Sometimes bookmakers may settle bets prematurely as there are always stat adjustments. But in most instance, I would not hold out hope that the bookmaker is going to help you out.

We should be clear. This is a much rarer scenario - but it does exist.

Not only do the bookmakers need to settle the bets differently, which is rare, it would also need to happen exactly at the line.

It is important you understand these risks before playing any arbitrage bets on soccer (but also other sports as well).

Advice for arbitrage betting on soccer

If you want to eliminate any risk, we recommend you only bet once lineups have been confirmed. Unfortunately, lineups are only confirmed an hour or so before kick-off. This can often to be at tricky times for Australians. But this is the best way to ensure you do not get screwed over.

We suggest using Rotowire to check the line-ups. They are also pretty accurate. So if you do want to put the bet on before lineups are confirmed, you can always check to see what Rotowire suggest. Moreover, you can use our EPL prop tool to see if your chosen player has been starting. To be clear, both these approaches contain risk which you need to be aware of. If you follow soccer closely and have a good handle over team selection, you can definitely put arbitrage bets on before teams are confirmed. But to protect yourself from downside, here are some measures you can take:

1. Check Rotowire, EPL prop tool and any team selection news

2. Place the over bet on a bookie where you can cash out. If you hear the player is not starting, you may be able to cash out of your bet for only a small loss.

3. Keep your stakes low to avoid a major loss. At the end of the day, we are taking expected value bets here. If we occasionally lose that’s okay as long as we are managing our stakes. Most of the time, the odds for the over as also quite high, so we do not need to be putting down a large stake i.e. in the example above, the odds for the over bet was 5

For new punters getting into arbitrage betting, we suggest avoiding playing arbs on soccer until you see teams confirmed. However, if you feel you understand the risks, there is definitely value in playing the arbs early. This is a decision you will ultimately have to make based on your risk-tolerance. And you never know, sometimes the bets will work in your favour (although we never want to be relying on this).

Arbitrage and EV betting is a long-term game. Think smart and be patient. You don’t have to take every opportunity if it presents a risk.

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